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Reform UK isn't working - Join a party that can!

Steve Unwin • 29 February 2024

Steve Unwin

Spokesman on Home Affairs, Political Reform and Local Government

Since they rebranded in 2021, Reform UK have fought 18 Parliamentary by-elections and have achieved a miserable average vote share of just 3.8% (as of 21 February 2024).

The combination of dropping out in “Conservative” seats on the eve of the 2019 General Election followed by rebranding from the Brexit Party has been a disastrous failure. I for one, being disenfranchised at the 2019 General Election, spoilt my ballot paper (I couldn’t vote for the Lib/Lab/Green/Con – the “Conservative” candidate was probably the most extreme pro-EU pinko of the lot) rejoined UKIP and resolved that would not happen again - even if I have to stand for UKIP myself!

CONTRAST Reform’s 2021-2024 results of an average vote share of just 3.8% with the periods BEFORE Reform UK. Under the banner of the Brexit Party, they only fought two Parliamentary by-elections (2019) and got a credible average vote share of 19.7% - FIVE times Reform UK’s current performance.

Prior to that, UKIP fought 23 Parliamentary by-elections from the 2010 General Election up to the June 2016 EU referendum and over this long period UKIP achieved an average vote of 17.0% - over FOUR times Reform UK’s current performance.

Even excluding Clacton and Rochester & Strood (special cases as defector sitting MPs were our candidates) UKIP achieved an average vote of 13.8% - over THREE times Reform UK’s current performance.

Professor Matthew Goodwin recently pointed out that UKIP averaged 38% across the final by-elections before the 2015 general election. That’s TEN times Reform UK’s current performance – really putting this point in perspective as we are now so close to a likely 2024 General Election. Also, in the ten parliamentary by-elections in Great Britain 2013 to May 2016, prior to the EU referendum, UKIP came second EVERY TIME (save twice taking first place) as well as coming second in 120 seats at the 2015 General Election.

Reform UK has not even once come second in a Parliamentary election.

Even in the six Parliamentary by-elections after the 2016 EU Referendum and prior to the Brexit Party’s formation the average UKIP vote (whilst the media were dissing UKIP with the compliment “job done”) was 9.8% - over DOUBLE times Reform UK’s current performance.

In spite of UKIP standing back in half (nine) of the 18 Parliamentary by-elections 2021-2024, it has made no perceivable difference. Giving them the benefit of the doubt and standing back might have seemed politically expedient at the time, but we must do this no longer.

Under Reform UK, our “side” of the political divide has faced a collapsing vote share, perhaps due to Reform’s perceived limited “Tory-lite” appeal. If anything, Reform’s performance demonstrates the importance of collaborative working on our side of the political fence, but Reform UK’s leadership are not interested in even discussing collaborative working even with those they largely agree with.

Reform UK are the common cuckoo of the political world – they are NOT on our side!

The country needs a functioning ‘populist centre-right’ but one that is united and supportable by a broad spectrum – which means one that will not scuttle back to the Tories “for fear of letting Labour in” as has been the case with Reform’s Tories under our broken First Past the Post electoral system. Only UKIP has an unbroken record of standing firm over a 30-year period and actually changing politics for good.

At our peak, UKIP had almost 600 elected local councillors scattered around the country, along with a network of constituency branches. Reform UK don’t appear to treat either of these as important. They rarely contest local elections and currently have six elected local councillors, all in Derby, and I have seen no evidence of a realistic branches, possibly due to their top-down control by company directors, rather than being a democratically run party.

If there is one important thing UKIP learned in the 2010 to 2019 period: we don’t necessarily need to win that many (or even any) Westminster elections to be an electoral threat to the Establishment parties. What we need to be able to achieve is a sizeable vote share taken from the Conservative and Labour Parties that we can and will affect the outcome of that election. The only electoral language the Establishment parties understand is losing their seats because we have taken sizeable quantities of votes from them.

Even in the current climate, with a weirdly woke, politically correct Conservative government that is deeply unpopular with its core supporters, with their worst Leader since John Major (who led them into oblivion in 1997) faced with a woke, politically correct, Labour Party that no longer represents its traditional working-class base, with a weak, uninspiring Leader in Kier Starmer, Reform UK, whilst they improved on their previous deposit-losing (under 5%) dire performances, they continue to be nowhere near affecting any actual results, or posing any perceivable electoral “threat”.

Britain’s Establishment crazy commitment to uncontrolled mass immigration and Net Zero madness deserve a far stronger challenge than Reform UK appear to be capable of. Our “side” needs to perform far better. Reform’s Divide and Rule strategy is plain wrong. We need to Unite the Right. The record of 20 years of Parliamentary by-elections (see below) highlights from 2004-2009 and the full picture from the 2010 General Election to 2024 show Reform UK is not appealing to disaffected working-class voters (who are currently more likely to stay at home than vote).

Reform is not an inspiring enough message (assuming you have the vaguest clue of what they want to reform – I don’t!) We need to rebuild UKIP and show that UK Independence is not just from the EU (important though that is).

UKIP has formed the Patriots Alliance – English Democrats and UKIP, so future ballot papers may have this description. We now need you to join and put yourself forward to either stand under the new “Patriotic Alliance” banner in local elections (we need names by March 2024 to stand in the May 2024 local elections) or, better still the General Election, or (even better) for both.

Join online - www.ukip.org

UKIP wants a proud, free, democratic, independent United Kingdom. So, END mass immigration, DUMP the green agenda, STOP the woke politically correct nonsense and NO MORE taking away of our precious freedoms!

Parliamentary By Elections

UKIP’s prime period (2004-June 2016)

2004 Hartlepool

UKIP 10.2%

2006 Bromley & Chislehurst

UKIP 8.1%

2009 Norwich North

UKIP 11.8%

2011 Oldham East & Saddleworth

UKIP 5.8%

2011 Barnsley Central

UKIP 12.2%

2011 Leicester South

UKIP 2.9%

2011 Inverclyde

UKIP 1.0%

2011 Feltham and Heston

UKIP 5.5%

2012 Bradford West

UKIP 3.3%

2012 Manchester Central

UKIP 4.5%

2012 Cardiff South and Penarth

UKIP 6.1%

2012 Corby

UKIP 14.3%

2012 Rotherham

UKIP 21.8%

2012 Middlesborough

UKIP 11.8%

2012 Croydon North

UKIP 5.7%

2013 Eastleigh

UKIP 27.8%

2013 South Sheilds

UKIP 24.2%

2014 Wythenshawe and Sale East

UKIP 18.0%

2014 Newark

UKIP 25.9%

2014 Clacton

UKIP 59.7%

2014 Heywood and Middleton

UKIP 38.7%

2014 Rochester & Strood

UKIP 42.1%

2015 Oldham West & Royton

UKIP 23.4%

2016 Sheffield Brightside

UKIP 19.9%

2016 Ogmore

UKIP 15.4%

2016 Tooting

UKIP 1.6%

Post-Brexit (June 2016-2017 GE)

2016 Witney

UKIP 3.5%

2016 Sleaford & North Hykham

UKIP 13.5%

2017 Copeland

UKIP 6.5%

2017 Stoke on Trent Central

UKIP 24.7%

Brexit Party prime period (2018-2019)

2018 Lewisham East

UKIP 1.7%

2019 Newport West

UKIP 8.6% (BXP stood back)

2019 Peterborough

BXP 28.9%

2019 Brecon & Radnorshire

BXP 10.5%

UKIP 0.8%

Reform UK rebrand launch to date.

2021 Hartlepool

Reform 1.2% (UKIP stood back)

Heritage beat them with 1.6%

2021 Airdrie & Shotts

Reform 0.2% (45 votes)

UKIP 0.1% (39 votes)

2021 Chesham and Amersham

Reform 1.1% (UKIP stood back)

2021 Batley and Spen

Reform announced they would stand back to help the Conservatives beat Labour!!!

2021 Old Bexley and Sidcup

Reform 6.6%

Eng Democrats 1.3%

UKIP 0.8%

Heritage 0.5%

2021 North Shropshire

Reform 3.8%

UKIP 1.0%

Reclaim 1.0%

Heritage 0.2%

2022 Southend West

UKIP 2.7%

Eng Democrats 2.2%

Heritage 1.6%

(Reform stood back)

2022 Birmingham Erdington

Reform 1.7% (UKIP stood back)

2022 Wakefield

Reform 1.9%

Eng Democrats 0.5%

UKIP 0.5%

2022 Tiverton & Honiton

Reform 1.1%

UKIP 0.6%

Heritage 0.4%

For Britain 0.3%

(For Britain disbanded and their Leader is now UKIP Justice spokeswoman)

Chester 2022

Reform 2.7%

UKIP 0.6%

2022 Stretford and Urmston

Reform 3.5% (UKIP stood back)

2023 West Lancashire

Reform 4.4% (UKIP stood back)

2023 Selby and Ainsty

Reform 3.7% (UKIP stood back)

2023 Somerton and Frome

Reform 3.7%

UKIP 0.7%

2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton W

Reform 1.3% (UKIP stood back)

2023 Mid Bedfordshire

Reform 3.7% (UKIP stood back)

2023 Tamworth

Reform 5.4%

UKIP 1.7%

2024 Wellingborough

Reform 13.0% (UKIP stood back)

2024 Kingswood

Reform 10.4%

UKIP 0.5%

By-election due in

2024 Rochdale

Reform TBA% (UKIP stood back)

Steve Unwin

Spokesman on Home Affairs, Political Reform and Local Government

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