In my youth I was much more of an idealist. I believed that as liberal democracies we had not only the right, but also the duty to free oppressed peoples. On that basis I was in favour of the Iraq war. I never believed the tripe about weapons of mass destruction, and thought the War on Terror was tenuous, but getting rid of Saddam Hussein was a laudable goal in its own right.

Adding to my naivety, I believed we had the military supremacy to take and hold the country, and by doing things like providing clean water and a stable supply of electricity, Iraqis would support our efforts and would even thank us for it.



I wasn’t alone in thinking that. Everyone now says they were against the war, but if memory serves, opinion was split down the middle, and the war had a small majority in its favour in polls leading up to Shock and Awe.

Had we attempted such a venture ten years earlier, things might have been different, but somewhere along the way, the West lost its military instincts, and most of our assumptions folded on first contacts with the enemy. We got just about every major decision wrong. We weren’t prepared or equipped for it, we underestimated the levels of resistance, and we managed to turn Iraq into the jihadi battleground for the entire world. If there was anything to be said for that war it is that we killed a great many jihadis, but only ended up recruiting more.

Consequently we destabilised the middle east, and exacerbated the domestic terror threat, and irrevocably damaged our diplomatic and military reputation. It is now hard to point the finger at Putin for invading a sovereign country on a flimsy justification, flying in the face of the “rules based order” – and we are still dealing with the fallout of that war.

Much the same can be said of Afghanistan, in which we squandered billions, wrecked our armed forces, lost a lot of good people, and left the country in a bigger mess than before. Having learned nothing in subsequent years we went on to meddle in Libya, again on a self-righteous crusade, and we made it worse. It seems we are not capable of learning.

These days, I’m not so keen on interventions. Even if we have the moral justification, it is unlikely we have the capability, not least since we’ve pruned our armed forces to a fraction of their prime, and couldn’t operate independently if we wanted to. In Afghanistan we were largely dependent on the USA for air support and heavy lift helicopters. We simply aren’t good at nation building. We let our victory in WW2 go to our heads and we’ve been dining out on it ever since.

But then something else has changed. Something more fundamental. The Western powers are run by psychopathic elite who have as much contempt for democracy as the tinpot dictators we once sought to remove. They speak of exporting “our values” but I’m increasingly unsure what they are. We apparently don’t stand for freedom of speech. We have only a sham democracy, and the social values they seek to export, born of critical race theory and gender theory, aren’t even wanted in their own countries.

I know that I would still die in a ditch for my country and my freedom if invaded, but I would not put my life at risk to serve the narcissism and arrogance of our rulers abroad – not least when every one of their military adventures ends up with Britain having to absorb tens of thousands of immigrants who contribute little and have no intention of integrating. I will not participate in my own destruction.

It is from this arc of experience I base my assessment of the Ukraine situation. The West has sought to expand its trade and defence empire, again with no regard for the consequences, and no regard for the security concerns of a major power. At every turn the West has sought to alienate Russia, carelessly provoking it, while stringing Ukraine along with promises we never intended to fulfil.

It’s not even as though we weren’t warned. This has been building for years, and we should have known NATO expansion was a serious provocation. Had an independent Ireland attempted to join the Soviet Union, British tanks would be driving down O’Connell Street by lunchtime. You might ask why shouldn’t Ukraine get to join NATO if that’s what it wants but the reason is that Russia is a nuclear power, and nuclear powers get to make demands of their neighbours when it comes to matters of national security. It is that simple.

To then say that Putin must be stopped, you are in fact demanding World War Three out of a fear that something worse may come if we don’t. There’s a word for that. Stupidity. There is no situation worse than a third world war. A war where even if we win, we still lose. Russia loses a few dilapidated cities, the names of which nobody can even pronounce. We lose Paris, Berlin, London, Manchester. Civilisation itself.

The question for the West, therefore, was one of how we de-escalate and reset relations with Russia. There was a window for that, in which we could have backed down from NATO expansion, and cultivated armed neutrality within Ukraine. Instead, the EU has dangled Ukrainian EU membership, and the option of NATO is still on the table. We’ve flooded the country with weapons, thereby escalating the tension.

The consequence of that is that Ukraine has been able to hold its own against the ground offensive for now, but having faced a series of propaganda defeats, Putin has instead launched an all out bombardment, putting Ukrainian cities under siege. Putin has decided that if Russia is to have a direct border with NATO on its western flank, then Ukraine will be on the Russian side of it. In all probability, Ukraine will be either split down the middle or destroyed completely.

If there was a way to dial it back, we have missed the opportunity. I don't think Putin has a way out any more. This is now ego-driven and he will see it to the bitter end. Meanwhile the West seems to have convinced itself that Ukraine is winning. Nobody can deny they have fought bravely, but it’s a forlorn hope. The west has ramped up the sanctions, which have only galvanised Putin’s resolve, and the harder we push, the more savage his campaign against Ukraine will be.

More intelligent foreign policy could have saved Ukraine but in all probability it’s too late now. Our vanity and arrogance have sealed Ukraine’s fate – and more people will die because of it. Millions will be displaced from their homes, and the whole of Europe now faces a decade of deep recession – not least because of our bone headed energy policies. You’ll forgive me then, if I’m not so keen to wave the NATO flag.