It is highly likely that the build up of Russian forces near to the Ukrainian border is a bluff. They have not deployed anything like the number of troops necessary to mount and invasion and occupation of Ukraine, and much of the necessary kit is not in place. Some of the kit we’ve seen is antiquated. We would caution anyone about British media reports being that they do little to verify the authenticity of the photographs they find on social media. Moreover, we’re dealing with a media which frequently describes Spitfires as “jet fighters” and calls anything on tracks a tank.

This goes beyond mere pedantry. A degree of military literacy allows the observer to understand what kind of deployment is underway. Such expertise is nowhere to be found in our media. They cluelessly pivot from one issue to the next, just as they did with Brexit, not even familiar with basic terminology. Even the great Andrew Neil couldn’t give a concrete explanation of the difference between the single market and the customs union. That same ignorance, sadly, extends to our politicians, many of whom have no idea why Brexit happened, and in terms of Ukraine, have zero historical context on which to base their views.

Where Ukraine is concerned, we should not be surprised to Russia taking robust action in response to what it views as an encroaching threat. The EU’s association agreement with Ukraine was seen as an attempt to snatch Ukraine out of the Russian sphere of influence. This, combined with the NATO expansion agenda, is taken as the West parking its tanks on Putin’s lawn. Russia feels the same way about this as the US did during the Cuban missile crisis. Ukraine is a vital economic and strategic interest for Russia and East Ukraine is more ethnically aligned with Russia.

It should be noted, however, that Ukraine is not of strategic importance to the West. Economically it’s a backwater and our strategic concern is the Pacific. We would not go to war under NATO Article 5 to save Ukraine from invasion so the push for NATO expansion, bringing the NATO border right up to the Russian border, is not only pointless, it’s going to be seen by Russia as pure antagonism.

The solution is for NATO to formally abandon expansion, and for the West to invite Russia for three way trade talks, ensuring that Russia’s interests are not threatened nor the status of Russian speaking peoples in Ukraine. Ukraine as a neutral buffer state ensures its own sovereignty while respecting the divisions within Ukraine. Ukraine is badly divided country, and what we’ve seen for the better part of a decade is a low level civil war between East and West Ukraine, and something that cannot be resolved without an all party settlement – much like the Northern Ireland dilemma. To attempt to drag all of Ukraine into the Western umbrella guarantees an invasion of East Ukraine or a more intense civil war.

Meanwhile, by ramping up the rhetoric we’re pushing Russia further toward China which is the last thing any of us needs – especially when Europe is dependent on Russian gas. Every time we antagonise Russia, we make our other foreign policy goals in Syria and Iran harder to achieve. We need to normalise relations and take irons out of the fire. Perhaps the greatest post-cold war failure of the West, over and above Iraq, was the failure to establish a functioning relationship with Russia, largely because Russia has served our politicians as a convenient folk demon to blame problems on.

If in the event Russia does invade, we won’t see it turn into a wider war for the simple reason that the EU won’t be able to agree a coherent common position. As with Libya, Germany is reluctant. In this instance, the gas pipeline will be shut down, and resuming supplies to Europe will be conditional on non-interference. If Germany says no to retaliation then that is the de-facto EU position. We’ll pump in weapons by the back door, ensuring another decade of quietly ignored conflict, but we’ll do what we usually do and make impotent wailing noises.

There is a diplomatic solution to this and that involves the West backing down and engaging. That Russia is a corrupt oligarchy and not very nice is neither here nor there. They are a power and still an important country with which we must contend. Ramping up to an expensive long term military stand-off is a waste of resources, and only shifts the global balance of power to China. Boris Johnson thinks a diplomatic solution is possible while maintaining our commitment to expanding the “European security umbrella”. He is quite wrong.

More to the point, our politicians are still labouring under the illusion that Britain is still a significant military power. Our failed adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan have run down our armed forces, and we are no longer equipped for fighting any such conflict. Troop numbers are way down, we lack armoured vehicles and our tanks are few in number. Only a joint European force can meet the military strength of Russia, and without German logistics capabilities, any counter-offensive is a non-starter. If politicians wanted to play wargames they should have thought twice about asset stripping our armed forces. Not forgetting that Russia is a nuclear armed state.

Thus, with no realistic military options available to us, all we can do is ramp up largely meaningless sanctions that will do little to change Putin’s mind, impoverish a Europe amidst an energy drought, and will only see Russia’s posture become more aggressive. To view the build up as as irrational or revivalist aggression on the part of Putin is to ignore the strategic sensitivities of Russia, and the historical context. This requires a multilateral settlement, not only to quell tensions between Russia and the West but also to resolve the conflict within Ukraine.

This is not a matter of showing strength or the usual machismo that goes with geopolitics. Our priority should be to de-escalate and find a peaceful solution. As usual, the West is only making things worse by its incessant clueless meddling, and the posturing we see is that of a political class that still imagines Britain as a military superpower. The claim that brexiteers were “pining for empire” is starting to look like projection. Though it may suit the narcissism of our ruling class to imagine themselves as white knights, they are wading into a very complex, very messy situation, without the first clue what kind of darkness they could unleash. We need to back off. War is in nobody's interests.