Tory leadership: damned either way
News & Social Media / Post
No dog in the fight
People were keen to show their support for Ukraine - but how does that hold up when they start to notice the consequences of food inflation, energy rationing and another wave of mass immigration from the global south. And since the global south is not interested in abiding by the West's sanctions, the longer this goes on, the more it looks like we're putting sanctions on ourselves. India, China and Brazil are more than happy to buy Russian gas and oil.
Moreover, by flooding Ukraine with weapons, we've turned it into a long war, and our enemies have now decided to do the same, with Iran now sending weapons to Russia. A long war, combined with suicidal Net Zero energy policies is sure to cause the greatest collapse of living standards for the better part of a century.
There is also another dynamic which could affect public support even more severely. European competition for LNG is causing blackouts in developing countries as supplies are diverted to wealthier countries. Pakistan, for instance, has been suffering badly because of insufficient LNG supplies that the country needs to keep its power plants going. This could further destabilise Pakistan and if there is civil strife we will no doubt see it played out on the streets of British cities.
Thus, if you want to evaluate the Tory leadership candidates, you have to look at them on the basis of their position on Net Zero and the war in Ukraine. A warmonger like Tom Tugendhat will likely follow Johnson in pushing Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian. We can expect much the same from Sunak. The national interest, though, is for this war to end as soon as possible.
Moreover, we must drop the pretence that he are helping Ukraine. Britain has mainly sent over obsolete weapons, too few in number to make a real difference. We're leading Ukraine up the garden path. With friends like us, who needs enemies? All of Europe is going to have to decide if it's really worth plunging Europe's economy into depression to save a scrap of Russian speaking rust belt. It looks as if Zelensky is living off borrowed time, in a race to achieve tangible results against the Russians before the strains become too much for his supporters and the bulk of the support evaporates.
As to Net Zero, It looks as though all but three of the Tory contenders are committed to maintaining it. With runaway inflation, putting arbitrary limits on productivity and further driving up the cost of energy simply isn't a viable proposition. But then if the crown falls to Braverman then you have an ERG mouthpiece, who will further isolate us from our closest markets and embark on an issue illiterate trade policy that didn't even stack up before Covid and the war in Ukraine.
As it happens, I think the Tories will chicken out of electing a right wing radical and go with a safer bet like Truss, but Truss is an idiotic warmonger and she'll keep Net Zero too. She appeals to the Spectator reading atlanticist set who are not in the least affected by rising energy costs.
I don't trust any of these blowhards to get us out of this mess. They can only make it worse. Now would be a good time to look at a change of government, but Starmer's Labour promises to have identical policies on Ukraine and Net Zero. On that basis, Starmer is even worse than Jeremy Corbyn.
Tory Twitter is looking at the candidates on the basis of their culture war credentials such as gender and free speech, and though neither of these issues are trivial - especially where women's rights are concerned, unless the Ukraine war is brought to a conclusion and the priority is placed on secure and affordable energy, then it won't matter what gender signs are on the bog doors because nobody will be able to afford to leave the house anyway.
Thus far I have yet to identify a reason why I don't like Kemi Badenoch, but it's all going to rest on her approach to Ukraine. If she's the same as the rest of the Westminster groupthink then it scarcely matters who leads the party.
But in any case, I should heed my own advice. The cardinal rule in politics is to never trust a Tory - and there's no reason to believe that any of the candidates will make good on their word - not least because the Tories have already squandered their political capital and the party is so split it won't be passing any new legislation for a while - let alone anything radical.
I am often castigated for being too negative, but I find the smart money is always to assume the worst where British politicians are concerned. I think we're pretty much damned either way.
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