Ukraine: at the limits

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Ukraine: at the limits

Pete North • 14 June 2022

The war in Ukraine must end now

There is a well founded fear that Ukraine faces defeat in the East. The war has turned into a grinding artillery contest where Russia is steadily gaining ground thanks to its overwhelming advantage in firepower. As the US and allies gather Wednesday to discuss fresh military aid to Kyiv, Ukraine’s fate will largely depend on how fast and in what quantities these heavy weapons arrive.

The problem is that the equipment that Ukraine needs doesn't actually exist. The UK policy of cutting back the armed forces and disposing of surplus equipment means we have very little to offer. The cupboard is bare. Eventually, even the Ukrainians will realise that Johnson is an empty vessel - all mouth and no trousers.

In any event, integrating large amounts of sophisticated equipment into the military is no easy job. The training requirement is huge, and there are all sorts of infrastructure and integration issues. To absorb and exploit that equipment might take several years, and the supporting nations don't have the patience to wait that long as the war takes its toll on western economies - and starts influencing elections.

Since EU states are hesitant to provoke any action which may exacerbate the already acute energy crisis, it is unlikely that anyone will come forward with the weapons Ukraine needs to do the job. In encouraging Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian for every inch of lost territory, the West has led Ukraine up the garden path. If Zelensky is banking on Western arms, he may well be leading Ukrainians into a slaughter.

Ultimately Russia's advances in the first days failed due to Russian incompetence. The Russian army isn't trained or equipped for headlong armoured advances and Ukraine enjoyed the home advantage. But the war is now moving to a different kind of fighting which could turn into months long slogs, destroying everything in its wake, killing thousands more, only for the strategic situation to end up back where it started with low intensity warfare on the borders.

If that is the inevitable outcome, the West should be looking to end the conflict before it escalates further, pushing Ukraine to consolidate its wins and secure it borders as they now stand. It is not in Europe's interests to sustain a war that will up-end every major economy, provoke a food crisis and another wave of mass migration. Nor is it fair or right to deceive Ukraine into believing the West will underwrite the war in perpetuity.

An outright victory for Ukraine would require more weaponry and resources than the West is willing to commit, and risks a more dangerous confrontation with Russia. Since we're not going to "stand with Ukraine", it's time to drop the pretence and admit this has gone as far as it can go.

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