Ukraine: still making it worse
News & Social Media / Post
The British government has lost sight of the national interest
We were among those who said Russia probably wouldn’t invade – and that was a reasonable assumption looking at the state of Russian armed forces and the conditions in which they would have to fight. You’d have to be seriously misguided to attempt it.
The invasion, predictably, is beset with the very problems we outlined, not least resupply, and is met with considerable resistance. It risks truning into a quagmire. In light of this Putin has ramped up the aggression, resorting to bombardment of civilian areas which will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.
Were the British government at all serious they’d be looking to incentivise a climbdown by Putin, allowing him to save face. Instead, by lionising Zelensky and giving Ukraine a free pass for its own escalation, we are taking sides rather too firmly and promoting a proxy war with Russia which could drag on and on.
While sympathising with Ukraine and offering aid, we should be doing our best to broker a cease fire and negotiate a long-term diplomatic solution. We are ruling ourselves out as mediators and, aggressor though Putin might be, Russia had issues with Ukraine which need to be resolved. If Putin doesn’t come away with something out of a peace package, he has no incentive to stop fighting, the result being untold misery and suffering by ordinary people.
Though it’s good PR for Zelensky to parade his Churchill credentials on the word stage, the West’s open embrace of it will only feed into Putin’s rampant paranoia. The EU’s braindead overtures to Ukraine being accepted into the EU do nothing at all to cool the situation.
Moreover, there is no fast-tracking of Ukraine. The accession process exists for a reason, and were Ukraine a current member it would be facing the same sanctions as Poland and Hungary, and hit with Greece style economic reforms. The EU would be taking on an economic and political basketcase. More cautious observes have realised by now that Ukraine is not part of the “family of liberal European democracies” and its politics are deeply entangled with its Eastern neighbour. A failure to appreciate Ukraine’s distinct status is driving the West to make some serious diplomatic miscalculations.
In that, the West has done more or less everything but commit forces and declare war. We are waging an economic war on Russia, which is proving to have serious blowback for Europe, while running the risk of destabilising Russia – on the assumption that whoever follows Putin will be an improvement. That’s a very big and careless gamble.
Depending on which reports you read, Russia is taking considerable losses and its armed forces seem unlikely to make a breakthrough. The Russian army lacks the equipment, tactics and leadership. This could be a major humiliation for Putin, who, if he was crazed enough to launch an invasion against the advice of military strategists, could opt for bigger, more devastating weapons - possibly even low yield tactical nukes. Russia may fail in its objectives, but the escalation will leave Ukraine in ruins.
On the home front, we have now entered a virtue auction over refugees where politicians are falling over themselves to invite displaced Ukrainians, overriding all current refugee rules. It seems they know a real refugee when they see one. It is likely that most displaced persons will want to stay on the continent, but then if the British government extends an open invite, it effectively restores EU freedom of movement. This government is more than happy to exploit them as a labour pool rather than address structural industrial imbalances.
Then there is that small matter of how people can afford to live. Petrol prices may stabilise but gas prices remain high. This in all probability means hard working families will have to use up their savings to heat their homes, adding to an already acute pensions timebomb. Only a third of Brits have any private pension provision, and of those who do, the returns are diminishing. Their pensions may be worthless by the time they retire – especially if food inflation is here to stay.
Absolutely nobody gains by a prolonged war in Europe. We cannot afford for it to become Europe’s Vietnam. The national interest is for the conflict to end as soon as possible. The outcome of which is a secondary concern.
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on behalf of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) both at Henleaze Business Centre, 13 Harbury Road , Henleaze, Bristol, BS9 4PN