Pro-EU Opinion Polls? Why?

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Pro-EU Opinion Polls? Why?

John Poynton • 1 February 2023

NEC member John Poynton discusses why opinions polls show a desire to rejoin the EU

We are now facing opinion polls showing a majority in favour of re-joining the European Union. How could this have happened?

Some Labour MPs, LibDems and Rejoiners think it is to do with labour shortages. They mistakenly associate tighter immigration with Brexit. But Brexit merely allows us to determine our own immigration policy, and that can be for more immigration if we so wish. So immigration now has nothing to do with Brexit. That shouldn't be too difficult to get across but we have to make the point.

More seriously they associate Britain's economic decline to Brexit. This is also nonsense as the attached two graphs illustrate.

The first graph shows our Balance of Payments (mostly trade) from the years 2000 to 2021, split between the EU (red line plummeting down through the floor) and the rest of the world (which I have split into three to show the US and China separately). Note that those other three lines taken together show a movement over that period into surplus. So at least until 2018 we have a divergence between the two areas – the EU and the Rest of the World.

How come? It can't be us because we are common to both. It has to be Brussels. My theory (in the absence of any other explanation) is that since 2000 Brussels has be deliberately though surreptitiously blocking our exports in revenge for our not joining the Euro. The thieving bastards have been stealing our trade, and our dozy officials in Whitehall haven't even noticed (or didn't want to, which is even worse).

Is this important? Well yes it is because an increasing deficit presents British business with a contracting market, and business will not invest into a contracting market. No investment, no growth. It is the greater efficiency of production resulting from investment that creates economic growth. Tax cuts may help, but the opportunities must be there in the first place.

This analysis is confirmed by the second graph which shows our growth rate plummeting alongside the EU trade deficit.

So the only way we can get growth going again is by ripping up the Tory deal and using tariffs to offset the EU barriers and bring the balance back into surplus. Only the UK Independence Party is saying this, so only we can get the economy going again. Worth a mention don't you think?

Now the deficit has already reversed over the past two years and it is tempting to say that is the Brexit Dividend! However It is much more likely to be due to Covid, but we will have to wait and see over the next couple of years. At least we can say it shows the current mess is NOT due to Brexit.

John Poynton – National Executive Committee Member

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